Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the first Canadian team given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks with media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I think we'll most likely take a little more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I believe we will end up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers should be preferred.


"You don't see rematches too often in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these 2 groups much better or worse than they were last year? I 'd say Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little worse than in 2015, particularly when you take a look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite since of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might offer it to him here, however that's something to see as the games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually sticking out ... there is a genuine world where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been viewed as a weakness on the roster, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or no objectives in 5 of his previous 7 starts, three of them shutouts.


Another excellent run in the internet could put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable previously," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its third successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might finally reach the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a bit tougher since more people liked Florida, but people are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has an opportunity to go 6 or 7 video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)