Early Odds
Super Bowl LX|Early Odds & Team Preview: Seahawks vs. Patriots
It feels surreal. It seems like just yesterday I was viewing Micah Parsons' very first video game as a Packer and now we're less than two weeks from the Super Bowl. We've got so much to go over leading up to the big video game so let's kick it off with an early odds sneak peek and group sneak peek for this year's big video game at Levi's Stadium.
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Early Odds Preview
This year's Super Bowl will include the # 1 seeded Seattle Seahawks representing the NFC and the # 2 seeded New England Patriots representing the AFC. The line for this game opened at 3.5 towards the Seahawks with the total opening at 45.5. Since opening, we've seen the spread dive to 4/4.5 and the overall's jumped an entire point; now sitting at 46.5.
This will be the 2nd time these 2 groups fulfill in the Super Bowl, the first coming back in 2015 when Russell Wilson and Tom Brady were still under center for their two particular teams. The two teams have met 3 times since then, all three video games resulting in Seahawk wins.
Both lineups have drastically altered since their latest meeting last year and it's why both groups now meet in the big video game. In in 2015's matchup we saw Jacoby Brissett fit up for the Patriots and Geno Smith under center for the Hawks. Both defenses were sub par systems and both offenses had a hard time to create points.
This year both the Patriots and Seahawks rank in the top-5 for points scored and top-5 for points allowed. Both teams have been elite on both sides of the ball and it's exactly why these two squads are the only 2 left standing.
The method prematurely splits are revealing a large manage on the Patriots +4.5, with a bulk of the bets the Hawks -4.5. We've still got 12 days before the big game, so remember that these splits are bound to change as are the real game lines.
Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, a market leader in the sports betting world.
Team Preview - Seahawks
Sammy Sweetheart
In the greatest video game of his career, Sam Darnold pertained to play. Darnold threw for 346 backyards versus the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC National championship, finishing 69.4% of his passes and threw 3 touchdowns while doing so. The Seahawks run game last week was held in check. Kenneth Walker finished the day with 62 yards on 19 carries (3.3 YPC) and the Rams did exactly what they set out to do; put the game in Darnold's hands.
Darnold's now won an overall of 30 games over the last 2 seasons, thrown for 4,000 lawns in back to back years and he did it with two different groups. He completed 5th in passing yards this year, 4th in completion portion over expectation, fourth in pass success rate and 1st in highly precise throw percentage.
The Seahawks offense ranks 3rd in points scored, 3rd in yards per play, 8th in rush lawns and offered up the fifth fewest sacks on the year. As excellent as they've been on that side of the ball, their kryptonite's been turnovers. Sam Darnold led the NFL in turnovers this year with 20 overall turnovers: 14 interceptions and 6 lost fumbles. He ends up being the first QB because Eli Manning in 2007 to lead the league in turnovers and still make the Super Bowl.
Legion of Doom
Now let's speak about how the Seahawks have actually handled to mitigate those turnovers and still win 16 video games ... and counting.
The Hawks rank 1st in points permitted, 5th in challenger redzone effectiveness, 3rd in opponent rush lawns and quit the 2nd least quantity of yards per play. Seattle's defense has actually likewise forced the fifth most turnovers in the league, snagging 18 overall interceptions and requiring 7 fumbles.
The team ranks 6th in sacks this year, they've got the second highest graded coverage system and 3rd greatest graded run defense. The group's done an excellent task of removing big plays and it's why the Seahawks rank 1st in challenger EPA/play (-0.113 ).
Team Preview - Patriots
If You read This, It's Far too late
If you're reading this, it's too late; the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl. All the whimpering about the Kansas City Chiefs and their supremacy has led us right back here, to something perhaps equally as miserable; a Patriots Super Bowl appearance.
New England rank 2nd in points scored this year, fourth in passing backyards, 1st in lawns per play and 1st in EPA/play. The engine that drives this offense remains in his 2nd year and already in heated discussions for the NFL's MVP Award.
Drake Maye has been elite in his first year as a full-time starter, eclipsing 4,000 lawns, throwing 31 touchdowns and simply 8 interceptions. Maye completed 4th in the NFL in pass yards, 3rd in passing goals, 1st in completion portion and EPA/play. He completed the year as one of the best deep ball passers in the league, ranking top-5 in conclusions of 20+ backyards, conclusion percentage on tosses of 20+ lawns and touchdowns tossed of 20+ backyards.
Maye also ended up with the second a lot of rush yards on scrambles this year, currently setting the Patriots franchise record for postseason rushing lawns by a QB with 141 through three video games. He ended up the year with the best passer score in the NFL and was a top-5 QB this year by every metric.
The Patriot Way
You can state what you desire about the method the Patriots have actually won these video games, however they've come away victorious however. Maye's seemed to struggle up until now in the playoffs, averaging less than 200 pass backyards per video game with 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles. That being said, this Patriots defense has shown no signs of battle.
New England ranks 1st in points permitted this postseason (8.7 per video game) and total yards from skirmish enabled (209.7 per video game). It's been the same throughout the regular season with the Pats ranking 4th in points permitted, sixth in hurrying yards allowed and 9th in pass lawns allowed.
The New England secondary has been elite this year and even much better in the playoffs. The Pats have both Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III playing at an elite level. Both gamers lead the playoffs in passer score allowed when targeted and have actually already integrated for 3 interceptions during this postseason.
New England has 5 overall interceptions in their 3 video games so far and have actually forced an overall of 8 turnovers in the playoffs. The Hawks have yet to turn the ball over in the postseason however it's something they've had a hard time with all year.
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