Can Canada's Election Debate Shake Up The Betting Odds?

So-called "knockout blows" are uncommon in Canadian politics, but there is an opportunity for one to land in tonight's English-language leaders' dispute that might shake up the surveys and .


- Tonight's English-language dispute is a possibility for one of Canada's politicians to score points with citizens.
- The odds and surveys are presently forecasting a Liberal win, a big shift from what they were recommending late in 2015.
- There's likely more wagering occurring on this Canadian election than any other in history.


The debate scheduled for 7 p.m. ET will provide a chance for Liberal leader Mark Carney to strengthen his celebration's lead, for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to turn the tables, and for the leaders of the Bloc Québécois and NDP to try to catch the eyes of citizens.


However, as things currently stand in the polls and on the oddsboard, Canada's 45th federal general election is appearing like it's the Liberals' to lose.


Here's where the Canadian election chances stand @BET99ON ahead of tonight's English-language dispute for the federal party leaders.


Liberals still leading, Conservatives still trailing, and everyone else still wayyyy back: pic.twitter.com/CAAsQZV1Mm


At Bet99 in Ontario on Thursday morning, the Liberals were still considerable favourites to win the election, at odds of -310. At a suggested probability of 75.61%, those chances are suggesting what the surveys have been recommending: that the Liberals are ahead with citizens at the minute.


The Conservatives, on the other hand, were priced as +220 underdogs and all other parties at +7,500. Similar chances exist at other Ontario-regulated sportsbooks, with the Liberals -405 to form government at FanDuel on Thursday early morning and the Conservatives sitting at +250.


It's been a stable climb for the Liberals throughout the campaign in both the surveys and Canadian election odds. On April 8, the Liberals were priced as -250 favourites at Bet99, while the Conservatives were +175 underdogs.


There is likely more wagering happening on this Canadian election than any previous journey to the polls. And there have actually been some big swings in the chances already.


The resignation of previous prime minister Justin Trudeau earlier this year and President Donald Trump's remarks about Canada ending up being the 51st U.S. state have been drivers for a resurgence in Liberal appeal. The Grits had actually been underdogs of +500 or more back in December at some sportsbooks, while the Conservatives were favourites of -900 or much shorter.


Tonight's dispute could be another driver for a shift in the odds, as it has actually been a few times in the past. (A French-language dispute was held on Wednesday, and earlier than initially meant so as not to conflict with a crucial Montreal Canadiens video game.)


'You had a choice, sir'


Perhaps the most notable example of a huge debate minute occurred more than 40 years back. That was when Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney hit then-Liberal Prime Minister John Turner with a stunner throughout the 1984 federal leaders' argument.


Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau had made a raft of visits en route out the door, and Mulroney stated to Turner that "You had an option, sir" to state no to those relocations.


After Turner's lacklustre response, Mulroney and the Conservatives cruised to a massive win in the election over the currently teetering Liberals.


Will we see something similar tonight? Probably not, however election wagerers might desire to keep an eye on the argument all the same.